SUSA polls upcoming primary states

All of these are SurveyUSA polls. Florida is January 29, though without delegates at stake, the Democratic primary may or may not matter. California, New York and Oklahoma are February 5th states.

Florida. 1/11-13. Likely primary voters. (12/15-16 results)

Democrats. MoE 4%

Clinton 56 (53)
Obama 23 (21)
Edwards 14 (19)

Republican MoE 4.3%

McCain 25 (10)
Giuliani 23 (29)
Huckabee 18 (24)
Romney 18 (20)
Thompson 9 (8)

California. 1/11-13. Likely primary voters. (12/14-16 results)

Democrats. MoE 3.5%

Clinton 50 (49)
Obama 35 (30)
Edwards 10 (14)

Republican MoE 4.4%

McCain 33 (14)
Giuliani 18 (28)
Huckabee 14 (20)
Romney 13 (16)
Thompson 9 (13)

Oklahoma. 1/11-13. Likely primary voters. (No trend lines)

Democrats MoE 3.9%

Clinton 45
Edwards 25
Obama 19

Republicans MoE 4.5%

Huckabee 31
McCain 29
Thompson 13
Giuliani 11
Romney 8
Paul 3

New York. 1/9-10. Likely primary voters. (No trend lines)

Democrats. MoE 3.2%

Clinton 56
Obama 29
Edwards 8

Republican MoE 4.6%

Giuliani 32
McCain 29
Huckabee 12
Romney 7
Thompson 6

It's hard to see a path to the nomination for Obama without California on February 5. Hillary has some pretty comfortable leads in many of the other states that day. He better close that gap or he'll be in a world of hurt that Tuesday night.

Obama has got to hope that a strong showing in South Carolina gives him some momentum, while hoping everyone ignores Florida since it has been stripped of its delegates like Michigan for moving up in front of February 5.

The rest of the states on Super Tuesday, with the number of delegates at stake:

Alabama          52   Illinois      153
Alaska           13   Kansas         32
American Samoa    3   Massachusetts  93
Arizona          56   Minnesota      72
Arkansas         35   Missouri       72
California      370   New Jersey    107
Colorado         55   New Mexico     26
Connecticut      48   New York      232
Delaware         15   North Dakota   13
Democrats abroad  7   Oklahoma       38
Georgia          87   Tennessee      66
Idaho            18   Utah           23

Remember that this isn't winner-take-all. So without a knockout punch, we may truly see a slow grind to the convention.